Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Relative strength stock screen


Here's a stock screen from the Motley Fool Mechanical Investing boards which uses relative strength as it's sole criteria. This is a market crushing strategy for people with little time to trade, since it is rebalanced every 3 months. 30% annual return is not too shabby...

Actual screen code:
Define {RS13WKT12}
Uses [Timeliness Rank] [Total Return 13-Week]
Deblank [Timeliness Rank] [Total Return 13-Week]
Keep :[Timeliness Rank]<=2 Sort Descending [Total Return 13-Week] ; Top :10 End Results from backtest.org from holding the top 10 stocks for 3 months at a time:

CAGR 30 12
GSD 38 16
Sharpe Ratio 0.83 0.54
Screen
S&P

1986
22 24
1987
17 6
1988
17 10
1989
37 35
1990
-2 -5
1991
107 31
1992
11 7
1993
31 10
1994
13 2
1995
48 39
1996
56 23
1997
-5 28
1998
37 35
1999
209 18
2000
21 -11
2001
-33 -9
2002
-1 -22
2003
114 28
2004
57 10
2005
12 8
2006
33 14
2007
11 6

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Trend Weaver diversified futures trading strategy

Trend Weaver is a diversified trend-following futures trading strategy created by Shay Campbell.

The strategy uses diversified markets such as: British Pound, Coffee, Crude oil, Cotton, Dollar Index, Eurodollar, T-Note 5 yr, Gold, Heating Oil, Japanese Yen, Lumber, Lean Hogs, Natural Gas, Nikkei Index, Palladium, Rough Rice, Soybeans, Swiss Franc, T-Note 10-yr and 30-yr T-Bond.

On Shay's website, he shows 3 different portfolios, which shows the effect of of using a different group of futures according to your account size. The large strategies use a wider variety of futures than the small strategy. However, any combination of futures can be used.

Shay has applied position sizing to simulate these real-world results, which are backtested from
Jan 1987 to Dec 2006:

Small account (starting with $10,000)
Position size: 7% per trade
Compounded annual growth rate: 31.4%
Max drawdown: 32.6%

Medium account (starting with $20,000)
Position size: 6% per trade
Compounded annual growth rate: 57.4%
Max drawdown: 33.7%

Large account (starting with $50,000)
Position size: 4% per trade
Compounded annual growth rate: 75.6%
Max drawdown: 42.4%

Equity curve of large portfolio using 1 contract:
The system has a win rate of about 40%, with winning trades being over twice as large as losing trades.

The nice thing about this market crushing strategy is the variety of contracts traded. It's probably not correlated to the stock market, so it would make a nice supplement to a stock trading account. Also, this is a working system that has been in use for several years. Also, Shay tells me that this system is tracked by Futures Truth Magazine starting this year. As of Jan 08, it was ranked #1 out of 271 systems for trading crude oil. If you decide to purchase this system, please tell them Crush the Market sent ya!



Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Portfolio 123 - GARP (Growth at a reasonable price)


Portfolio123 is a platform for developing and executing quantitative stock strategies.

From their website: "Portfolio123's breakthrough platform allows you to create, backtest and put into production your quantitative strategies."

One of the characteristics that helps Portfolio123 rise above other screening programs is the ability to rank stocks. Ranking is a better way to pick stocks than screening.

Today, we are going to feature a model portfolio strategy called "GARP $100K " Here's the description from their website:

This strategy finds GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) stocks with SmallCap concentration. It holds aproximately 20 stocks, has a relatively low yearly turnover of around 150%, and is liquid for investment amounts of $100K and more.

The top ranked stocks are picked based on a ranking system that combines several factors, such as: technical, valuation, earnings quality, and industry leadership. The highest ranking stocks must also pass these conditions:

- Have low PEG (Price to Earnings Growth)
- Pass liquidity tests
- Market cap between $50M and $1B
- Sector does not exceed 20% of total
- Have low correlation with other holdings

Rebalancing is done weekly: if a stock's rank drops below a certain threshold or if the market cap exceeds $2B it is replaced by a higher ranked stock.

This model returns an average of 32% per year with a max drawdown of 28%, which crushes the market quite easily. Details of the results of the model are shown here.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Jamie Gritton's MI Stock Screen Backtester

To show that there are numerous ways to Crush the Market using a free trading strategy, we present the following stock screen, backtested on Jamie Gritton's MI Backtester:

SOS_A screen, originally from from the Motley Fool Mechanical Investing discussion board. This is a 'screen of screens' which runs several stock screens and picks the highest ranking stocks. Seems to work pretty well:

Year SOS_A return
1986 31
1987 31
1988 32
1989 36
1990 8
1991 84
1992 34
1993 52
1994 27
1995 110
1996 63
1997 34
1998 62
1999 212
2000 -40
2001 -36
2002 -14
2003 61
2004 2
2005 30
2006 9
2007 35

You can learn more about the stock screens derived from the Motley Fool boards (and alot about stock screening strategies) here.