Friday, June 13, 2008

Zack's Earnings and Margins screen

Zack's Investment Research has an area of their website devoted to stock screens. One of the screens that they are currently featuring is the Earnings and Margins screen. The screen looks for stocks with growing earnings, earnings above zero, a good Zacks rank, and a good broker rating.

Here's the parameters of the screen:
- The most recent completed year's earnings higher than the previous year's earnings.
- Net Margin above zero.
- Zacks Rank <= 2
- Average Broker Rating = 1.0

And here's the results (rebalanced every 4 weeks):
2008 (through 3/21/08): -13%
2007: 7.7%
2006: 22.4%
2005: 27%
2004: 11.1%
2003: 103%
2002: 29.1%
2001: 58.5%

It's interesting to note that this screen has always had a positive year until this year. This year is proving to be especially tough for investors and traders. Good luck out there!

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Calendar market timing model (Halloween indicator)

Here is a well-known strategy for timing the stock market: Sell in May and buy in November. (AKA "Sell in May and go away" & the Halloween indicator)

In their paper entitled "
The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Another Puzzle", Ben Jacobsen and Sven Bouman document this pattern in 36 of 37 global markets studied. This is a very robust timing method that works well in most markets, although researchers are puzzled as to the reason.

Conservative investors could develop a strategy that would simply reduce and increase exposure to stocks via asset allocation in lieu of being 100% or 0% invested.

Novice traders might ask, "Well what happened this year?". The answer is that no strategy works all the time. Good strategies have been proven to work most of the time.

See also:
Quant Investor: Calendar Based Market Timing Model

Collective2 trading systems


Collective2 is an interesting website that offers subscription trading systems. These systems are often technical in nature. Caveat emptor - anyone can submit a system, so there are a lot of subpar systems on there. Since you don't know the rules of the system, they are black box trading systems. Many systems I have noticed are probably data mined, because you can look at the chart and watch it fail when it operates in real time.

That said, the website lets you find systems several different ways. Once you go to the website, take a look at the options under "Find a system". There are quite a few good systems out there. Even if you don't want to subscribe to one, you can read the descriptions to get ideas for your own trading strategy.


Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Relative strength stock screen


Here's a stock screen from the Motley Fool Mechanical Investing boards which uses relative strength as it's sole criteria. This is a market crushing strategy for people with little time to trade, since it is rebalanced every 3 months. 30% annual return is not too shabby...

Actual screen code:
Define {RS13WKT12}
Uses [Timeliness Rank] [Total Return 13-Week]
Deblank [Timeliness Rank] [Total Return 13-Week]
Keep :[Timeliness Rank]<=2 Sort Descending [Total Return 13-Week] ; Top :10 End Results from backtest.org from holding the top 10 stocks for 3 months at a time:

CAGR 30 12
GSD 38 16
Sharpe Ratio 0.83 0.54
Screen
S&P

1986
22 24
1987
17 6
1988
17 10
1989
37 35
1990
-2 -5
1991
107 31
1992
11 7
1993
31 10
1994
13 2
1995
48 39
1996
56 23
1997
-5 28
1998
37 35
1999
209 18
2000
21 -11
2001
-33 -9
2002
-1 -22
2003
114 28
2004
57 10
2005
12 8
2006
33 14
2007
11 6